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Smart Whisky Shopping

20. June 2019 | 589 Views | 5 Comments

We started to evaluate whisky shop prices. Which whisky is cheap compared to what it could be worth on the secondary market? Which are the whiskies with price tags that are just over the top? Let us introduce to you the Whiskystats way of shopping whisky. 

Here is the deal. We searched various web shops to find out which whiskies are currently on offer. We then used our Whisky Pricing Machine to estimate the potential market value of each and every bottle. By comparing our price estimations with the actual shop prices we are now able to identify whiskies for which the price tag seems a little bit off.
 
In this article we want to demonstrate this idea with the items we found on The Whisky Exchange. We evaluated 1.069 whiskies which were on offer by the time of writing these lines. Note that the stated shop prices do not include any delivery costs since they are due to your very location of residence. About 20% of the analyzed whiskies have an estimated market value which is higher than the shop price. On the other side we found 50% of the bottles having a market value below their price tag and consequently 30% with what seems to be a very fair value.

Perfectly Prized Whisky

We start off with those whiskies which seem to be very reasonably prized. There is the Edradour 17yo (1999) Bordeaux Finish. Based on the recent trades we observed on the various auction houses our Whisky Pricing Machine (WPM) evaluates this release with 180 GBP. This is only six percent above the 168 GBP for which it is currently available.
Around 5% below its claimed price is the estimated market value of the Glein Keith 21yo (1995) Berry Bros & Rudd release. For such a 21 year-old independent Glen Keith bottling the WPM suggests a price of 105 GBP compared to the 112 GBP offering.
Pretty expensive but, based on our historic price observations, rather market conform is the pricing for the Springbank 12yo (1979) distillery bottling. The asked price of 750 GBP only slightly deviates from our estimated 725 GBP. Seems like such Springbanks from the 1970s are just worth this money, at least according to the secondary whisky market.
Also not a cheap buy but nevertheless very fair prized is the Tomatin 30yo (1965) Jewels of Scotland release by Lombard. Both our market value estimation and the shop price are 450 GBP. Another perfectly prized example is the Yoichi Single Malt release by Nikka. Our pricing tool completely agrees that this whisky could cost 80 GBP at the moment.

Underprized Whisky

Of course the most interesting items are those for which the shop price lies below what we think the current market value could be. What better way to further enjoy your latest purchase than knowing that the whisky could be worth more than what you actually pay.
 
The current Glengoyne 21yo Sherry Cask release is available for 133 GBP. This seems like a very good deal since our pricing machine evaluates this Highland single malt with 190 GBP. So the estimated market value is no less than 40% above the current shop price!
But there is more. The Tormore 30yo (1988) Cask Strength Collection by Signatory is evaluated with 240 GBP but only costs 150 GBP. And yes, we know that its sibbling release is currently review-bombed on Whiskybase. But whatever the reason for that might be, from a pure quantitative point of view this seems like a very interesting offer worth considering.
We actually find underprized whiskies in all price categories. If you do not shy away to spend more you might want to consider the Bunnahabhain 36yo (1980) Canasta edition. Available for 1.750 GBP current trade data implies a possible market value of 2.270 GBP. So here we have a 30% gap between price estimation and shop offer.
But it is not only quite recent release that can be underprized. Also very collectable editions like the Rare Malts series offer room for potential “bargains”. Here we found the Glendullan 22yo (1972) Rare Malts release. This single malt is available for 450 GBP. Since our WPM evaluates this whisky with 550 GBP this seems like a chance to get a Rare Malts release 20% below its estimated market value.
Another example for the smaller pocket is the Glenallachie 12yo (2006) Single Cask release. Compared to the claimed 77 GBP the estimated market value lies at 115 GBP which is 50% higher. So we see that we also find underprized offerings in every price category

Overprized Whisky

As already mentioned, more than 50% of the offerings we analyzed have a price tag that exceeds the current market value. This is of course of no surprise, considering the fact that the shops are no charity organizations. Nevertheless it is of great value to know how far the price is off. Take the Talisker 25yo 2017 Release. This whisky is offered for 275 GBP which does sound like a lot. And it apparently is. Our WPM thinks this Talisker should currently be sold for only 210 GBP which is 25% below its actual price tag!
Similar is true for the BenRiach 30yo distillery bottling. With 425 GBP the shop price exceeds the estimated market value by 100 GBP. Of course there would be many other examples to show here. Please keep in mind that there was no particular reason we decided to pick the items we did. This is just a matter of demonstrating yet another application of our whisky database on which the Whisky Pricing Machine is based.

Future Plans

The idea is to setup a platform where you, the Whiskystats user, can search the latest shop offerings and compare the prices to our market value estimations on your own. This enables you to identify those hidden offers that might be prized very attractively. And keep in mind, we are not only hunting the cheapest prices but translating secondary market knowledge into a true information advantage.
 
What is your oppinion on this? Do you find this usefull? Would you use such a price comparison platform yourself? Let us know in the comments below!

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