GENERAL

The Whisky Pricing Machine

4. May 2019 | 1.3K Views | 3 Comments

There is no question about it, it is the market that defines the prices. As the major market observer we now translate market data back into price estimations. We are proud to introduce to you the Whiskystats Whisky Pricing Machine! 

Did you ever searched endless websites in order to find a price estimation for your whisky? Did you try to map prices of similar, recently traded releases because you couldn´t find the exact same whisky? We certainly did. Tired of endless scrolling and shaky assumptions we decided to automate the process. The combination of our whisky database and some advanced machine learning algorithms resulted in a tool that we call the Whisky Pricing Machine, or short WPM.

How it works

Using the WPM is as easy as it gets. Simply type in the major characteristics of your whisky and click “Estimate Market Value”. There you go! After a little bit of wizardry you will be presented our best guess for what your whisky could be worth on the secondary market right now. But that´s not all. If your entered whisky features are close to any whiskies in our database, these whiskies will be displayed too, including the latest price observations of course.
WPM Interface
Apparently there exist a multitude of use-cases for a tool like this. What would be a reasonable price for your whisky? Is that called amount on the price tag over- or underprized? What could your bottle, which hasn´t been traded at all or for a very long time, be worth today? How does the market value depend on the time of maturation? All of these are exactly the questions the WPM is designed to answer!

Pricing Examples

Let´s see the WPM in action for the very first time. The whisky we will price is the current Bowmore Distillery Managers release. This whisky is not yet included in our database since we do not have price observations from two different round of auctions yet (which will change this weekend). Nonetheless we can use the WPM to estimate its market value. This Bowmore expression was distilled in 1997 and bottled 22 years later in early 2019. There came 3000 bottles out of the twelve casks which are stated on the label each having a 51,7% alcohol level.
Bowmore 22yo (1997)
These are exactly the features the WPM needs in order to do the estimation. By learning from our historical observations how prices depend on these features, the WPM can now come up with an estimated market value of 615 Euros. Considering this and that some online shops offer this bottle for something between 500 to 600 Euros, the 250 GBP price tag directly at the distillery seems like very good value for money and everybody who has the chance should pick up one on-sight!
Highland Park 28yo (1988)
Next up is the Highland Park 28yo (1988) bottled by Cadenhead. We track the value of this whisky since early 2017. The latest price observation comes from February 2019 and realized at around 200 Euros. The WPM assesses the current market value of this whisky to 210 Euros. So seems like this Highland Park expression is (under current market conditions) neither over- nor underprized. In addition the WPM shows us all bottles in our database that are “similar” to this release. At the time of writing this lines these are the three Cadenhead releases Highland Park 28yo (1989), the Highland Park 30yo (1988) Authentic Collection and of course the Highland Park 28yo (1988) itself.

Alternative Use Cases

We now want to demonstrate another neat use-case of the WPM. Assume you own a cask from e.g. Lagavulin distilled in 2005. Your original plan was to keep this cask for 20 years and then release it as a single cask bottling. From todays point of view, what would such a whisky be worth on the secondary market? For this you can use the WPM too. Simply type in the hypothetical characteristics of this release and et voilà, seems like 830 Euros per bottle could be possible.
Hypothetical Lagavulin Cask Pricing Released 2025
But what if you would wait for another ten years? In ten years maturation of course the angel´s share increases, so you will get less bottles out of your cask. But then it is a 30 years-old release, and age matters! So let´s make use of the WPM. Adapt the characteristics of your future release and run the estimation again.
Hypothetical Lagavulin Cask Pricing Released 2035
Seems like ten years of additional maturation lead to a price increase of 130 Euros (for such a 20 years-old Lagavulin cask). Note that we adapted the number of released bottles and alcohol volume too (based on very bold assumptions about cask maturation). So we leave the final math to you to decide whether or not these additional ten years of maturation pay-off from a pure monetary point of view.

Your Access

The Whisky Pricing Machine is now online. As a visitor you can do three evaluations per month. As a registered Whiskystats member you have up to ten monthly evaluations. If you are not yet registered sign-up to become a Whiskystats member now (for free).
 

The Whisky Pricing Machine
 

This is the first time we expose the WPM to the public. For the time being we consider the tool in testing phase. We highly appreciate any feedback to further improve the estimation quality. Please note that these are only price estimations. We of course can not guarantee you that this prices can be achieved on the market!

Found in Shops:
Bowmore 1988 / Bot.2017 Islay Single Malt Scotch Whisky
70cl / 47.8% - A well-aged Bowmore matured in first-fill bourbon casks and originally released in 2017 exclusively in travel retail. Distilled in 1988 and aged for about 30 years, the whisky is quite different to the more usual sherry-cask matured Bowmores of this age, showing elegant maritime notes and flashes of stormy sea.
Fair Prized
395 GBP Shop Price at The Whisky Exchange
415 GBP Estimated Market Value
Bowmore 25 Year Old Islay Single Malt Scotch Whisky
70cl / 43% / Distillery Bottling - A long-aged distillery-bottled Bowmore, a large proportion of the casks used to assemble this 25yo are ex-sherry, giving sweetness and depth to this complex, fruity Islay malt.
Fair Prized
380 GBP Shop Price at The Whisky Exchange
355 GBP Estimated Market Value
Highland Park Fire 15 Year Old Island Single Malt Scotch Whisky
70cl / 45.2% / Distillery Bottling - Fire is the follow up to Ice and is the second in Highland Park's series celebrating Viking legends. Aged entirely in refill port casks, this is lightly smoky with notes of dried citrus peel, vanilla and a fruity spiciness.
Fair Prized
167 GBP Shop Price at The Whisky Exchange
165 GBP Estimated Market Value

Comments

Board Forums The Whisky Pricing Machine

Viewing 3 posts - 1 through 3 (of 3 total)
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  • #19228
    Avatarfabricekhan
    Participant

    That’s a really nice tool!
    Once again, congratulations and thank you for the work you are doing Johannes.

    #19280
    WhiskystatsWhiskystats
    Keymaster

    Thanks Fabrice,
    appreciate it!

    #19432
    AvatarMichael Morrison
    Participant

    Long overdue and an excellent tool. Cuts the hype out of bottle pricing and injects realism. Great investment guide as well.!

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