The Whisky Pricing Machine
There is no question about it, it is the market that defines the prices. As the major market observer we now translate market data back into price estimations. We are proud to introduce to you the Whiskystats Whisky Pricing Machine!
Did you ever searched endless websites in order to find a price estimation for your whisky? Did you try to map prices of similar, recently traded releases because you couldn´t find the exact same whisky? We certainly did. Tired of endless scrolling and shaky assumptions we decided to automate the process. The combination of our whisky database and some advanced machine learning algorithms resulted in a tool that we call the Whisky Pricing Machine, or short WPM.
How it works
Using the WPM is as easy as it gets. Simply type in the major characteristics of your whisky and click “Estimate Market Value”. There you go! After a little bit of wizardry you will be presented our best guess for what your whisky could be worth on the secondary market right now. But that´s not all. If your entered whisky features are close to any whiskies in our database, these whiskies will be displayed too, including the latest price observations of course.
Apparently there exist a multitude of use-cases for a tool like this. What would be a reasonable price for your whisky? Is that called amount on the price tag over- or underprized? What could your bottle, which hasn´t been traded at all or for a very long time, be worth today? How does the market value depend on the time of maturation? All of these are exactly the questions the WPM is designed to answer!
Let´s see the WPM in action for the very first time. The whisky we will price is the current Bowmore Distillery Managers release. This whisky is not yet included in our database since we do not have price observations from two different round of auctions yet (which will change this weekend). Nonetheless we can use the WPM to estimate its market value. This Bowmore expression was distilled in 1997 and bottled 22 years later in early 2019. There came 3000 bottles out of the twelve casks which are stated on the label each having a 51,7% alcohol level.
These are exactly the features the WPM needs in order to do the estimation. By learning from our historical observations how prices depend on these features, the WPM can now come up with an estimated market value of 615 Euros. Considering this and that some online shops offer this bottle for something between 500 to 600 Euros, the 250 GBP price tag directly at the distillery seems like very good value for money and everybody who has the chance should pick up one on-sight!
Next up is the Highland Park 28yo (1988) bottled by Cadenhead. We track the value of this whisky since early 2017. The latest price observation comes from February 2019 and realized at around 200 Euros. The WPM assesses the current market value of this whisky to 210 Euros. So seems like this Highland Park expression is (under current market conditions) neither over- nor underprized. In addition the WPM shows us all bottles in our database that are “similar” to this release. At the time of writing this lines these are the three Cadenhead releases Highland Park 28yo (1989), the Highland Park 30yo (1988) Authentic Collection and of course the Highland Park 28yo (1988) itself.
Alternative Use Cases
We now want to demonstrate another neat use-case of the WPM. Assume you own a cask from e.g. Lagavulin distilled in 2005. Your original plan was to keep this cask for 20 years and then release it as a single cask bottling. From todays point of view, what would such a whisky be worth on the secondary market? For this you can use the WPM too. Simply type in the hypothetical characteristics of this release and et voilà, seems like 830 Euros per bottle could be possible.
But what if you would wait for another ten years? In ten years maturation of course the angel´s share increases, so you will get less bottles out of your cask. But then it is a 30 years-old release, and age matters! So let´s make use of the WPM. Adapt the characteristics of your future release and run the estimation again.
Seems like ten years of additional maturation lead to a price increase of 130 Euros (for such a 20 years-old Lagavulin cask). Note that we adapted the number of released bottles and alcohol volume too (based on very bold assumptions about cask maturation). So we leave the final math to you to decide whether or not these additional ten years of maturation pay-off from a pure monetary point of view.
The Whisky Pricing Machine is now online. As a visitor you can do three evaluations per month. As a registered Whiskystats member you have up to ten monthly evaluations. If you are not yet registered sign-up to become a Whiskystats member now (for free).
This is the first time we expose the WPM to the public. For the time being we consider the tool in testing phase. We highly appreciate any feedback to further improve the estimation quality. Please note that these are only price estimations. We of course can not guarantee you that this prices can be achieved on the market!