GENERAL

The Whiskystats Shop Monitor

8. August 2019 | 734 Views | 5 Comments

The number of whiskies available online is ever-increasing and digital price-tags are changing rapidly too. By evaluating those shop prices under current secondary market conditions we provide to you a very rational approach for identifying the best offers. 

Did you ever use our Whisky Pricing Machine to determine whether or not shop prices are market conform? We certainly did, and we now automated that process too! In our Shop Monitor, we collect thousands of whisky shop offerings and estimate their current secondary market value. And here is the best part, you can browse all of those shop items on your own!
 
You may want to use this tool to further justify your purchase as the whisky you are after turns out to be underprized under current market conditions. Or maybe you want to prevent yourself from spending too much as similar whiskies are available for less. The applications of our Whiskystats Shop Monitor are manifold.

Value Categories

Obviously, the key feature of our shop monitor is the estimated market value we have for all items. To get a better overview, we grouped all offers into seven categories based on the ratio between the respective market value and the actual shop price. These so-called “Value Categories” range from “Heavily Underprized” to “Fair Prized” to “Heavily Overprized”.
Value Categories
Naturally, the majority of shop offers will be fair prized or some sort of overprized since most shops will try to adapt to the market too. By the time of writing these lines around 80% of the analyzed shop offers are either fair prized or overprized. However, this means that there are 20% which seem to have a potential market value that lies significantly above the current shop price.

Estimated Market Values

To calculate the estimated market value for each whisky individually we, of course, use our trademark Whisky Pricing Machine (WPM). The WPM learns from the hundreds of thousands of price observations we collect in our whisky database how those prices depend on key characteristics like the brand, vintage or the alcohol level (to name a few). With these dependencies, we are then able to predict the market value of whiskies, even though we do not have any direct observations. The WPM is updated on a monthly basis and is free for you to use and experiment with.
 
So both the Shop Monitor and the Pricing Machine are updated regularly. This ensures that we will always evaluate the current shop items with the latest market data available. Hence, a regular revisit of our Shop Monitor is worth the while if you are looking for those special offers!

Comments

Board Forums The Whiskystats Shop Monitor

This topic contains 5 replies, has 3 voices, and was last updated by Whiskystats Whiskystats 1 month, 3 weeks ago.

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  • #20696
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    alan scott
    Participant

    Johannes, Thank you for this great new tool which is really useful. Playing around with it I came across what looks like an anomaly. The Shop Monitor gives Macallan Lumina the market value of 150 GBP while the Database gives a June value of 74 Euros.
    Cheers
    brugen

    #20697
    Whiskystats
    Whiskystats
    Keymaster

    Hi Alan,
    the estimated market values are not the direct price observations we make. Those observations serve as the basis on which our model is trained. So if there are similar Macallan releases trading for higher prices, the model accounts for that.
    It seems like both the shop price and the latest auction results are below our “best guess” for that Lumina. This, of course, may change if more low price observations come in.

    Best wishes,
    Johannes

    #20699
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    alan scott
    Participant

    Johannes ,
    Thanks for the explanation which will inform my use of this great new tool.
    Alan

    #21001
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    Daniel Stauffer
    Participant

    This type of research is greatly helpful to analyze the correct market value of Whiskeys and this research includes a lot of knowledge with time to time updation. Thanks for your accurate analysis while maintaining the above.

    #21022
    Whiskystats
    Whiskystats
    Keymaster

    Thanks, Daniel! Highly appreciated!

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