MARKET ANALYSIS

Whisky Pricing Examples

28. May 2019 | 828 Views

Our whisky pricing tool enables us to put a market conform price tag on any bottle of scotch single malt whisky. With this information we can now evaluate the latest round of auctions and find out which whiskies are currently over- or underprized. 

In a nutshell we used our Whisky Pricing Machine (WPM) to generate price estimations for all the bottles that were traded last month. We can now compare these estimated market values to the realized prices. Important detail, the WPM evaluated those whiskies before the new price observations were added to our database. In other words, our pricing machine was unaware of the actual prices of the last round of auctions.

Underprized Bottles

If you search the auction platforms for interesting bottles to buy you presumably are looking for good deals. Such a good deal could be a bottle which trades for less than comparable releases. Hence we are looking for those bottles which achieved less than what our pricing machine would have expected.
 
An example is the Ben Nevis 23yo (1990) President´s Cask. This Highland single malt traded for 900 Euros in June 2018. In December 2018 prices on auctions dropped to 560 Euros while those in several webshops remained at around 1.000 Euros. Our WPM assessed the value of this whisky with 600 Euros. At WhiskyAuction.com the hammer fell at 480 Euros which seems like a good deal considering the price history and our evaluation.
Ben Nevis President´s Cask 2 Another example for a currently underprized whisky is the Glengoyne 12yo (1998) Single Cask 1135 release. Our WPM evaluates this bottling with 250 Euros. Since January 2019 we recorded three trades for less than 200 Euros (and one for 360 Euros). In April this whisky was sold for 200 Euros, which is 20% below our evaluation. Likewise underprized seems to be the Glenfarclas 48yo (1961) Family Cask 1326 which we assessed with a market value of 2.500 Euros. All the prices we observed since April 2018 are below 1.900 Euros.
 
Finally we have a look at a more extravagant whisky. The Bowmore 52yo (1965) traded for 48.000 Euros in February 2019. The evaluation that came out of our WPM was 40.000 Euros and signalled overprizing. In April 2019 we observed two trades of this vintage Bowmore, one for 39.727 Euros and one for 38.445 Euros. So it seems like the 40.000 Euros were a reasonable estimation. To be fair, we cannot quite call this whisky underprized, even though it traded for more than 1.000 Euros below its evaluation.

Overprized Bottles

If you wait for the right moment to sell your whisky, you might be interested in which whiskies appear to be overprized considering current market conditions. Prices for the Karuizawa 42yo (1967) 10th Anniversary release just recently jumped to above 16.500 Euros at WhiskyAuctioneer.com. Our evaluations show some reluctance against this more than 80% price increase within less than a year as they price this extraordinary japanese single malt with 12.300 Euros. What this tells us is that, based on current market conditions, prices for this release are over the top. But also keep in mind that if more trades like these are observed our monthly updated WPM will of course adjust.
Karuizawa Single Cask 6426 Another quite prizy example is the Macallan 40yo 2005 Release. Prior to the latest round of auctions our best guess for what this whisky could be worth was 16.500 Euros. The 19.800 paid in April 2019 top our evaluation by 20%. Interestingly, in the meantime our WPM now evaluates this whisky with 14.500 Euros. So although this very whisky traded for far more it seems like the overall downward movement of Macallan was captured by our pricing tool too!

Spot on Pricing

At the end we want to point out some trades that perfectly aligned with our prior evaluations. The Longrow 25yo (1974) was evaluated with 2.150 Euros and traded for 2.150 Euros in April 2019. So it seems like both the market and our pricing tool did not weight the 2.350 Euros observed in February 2019 too much.
Longrow 25yo 1974 We also witnessed very accurate pricing for the Black Bowmore 42yo (1964) release. Our WPM evaluated this whisky with 23.000 Euros, indicating that those trades observed since December 2018 could be below market value. In April 2019 this legendary Islay whisky then traded for the acclaimed 23.000 Euros. Similar is true for the Bunnahabhain 25yo and the Karuizawa Fugaku Sanjurokkei (2nd Edition).
 
To get the most out of our Whisky Pricing Machine we recommend you to also take the individual price history of the whisky of your interest into account. If you compare our price estimations to other sources (like the prices displayed on Whiskybase.com), please keep in mind that our evaluations are solely based on real trades, while others may rely on proclaimed webshop prices that in some cases nobody has ever really paid.

Found in Shops:
Macallan 12 Year Old Double Cask Speyside Single Malt Scotch Whisky
70cl / 40% / Distillery Bottling - Macallan 12 Year Old Double Cask has been aged in a combination of American oak and ex-sherry casks. This is a rich whisky which combines fruity citrus and caramel with spicy ginger and nutmeg.
Fair Prized
52 GBP Shop Price at The Whisky Exchange
55 GBP Estimated Market Value
Macallan 12 Year Old Double Cask Speyside Single Malt Scotch Whisky
70cl / 40% / Distillery Bottling - Macallan 12 Year Old Double Cask has been aged in a combination of American oak and ex-sherry casks. This is a rich whisky which combines fruity citrus and caramel with spicy ginger and nutmeg.
Fair Prized
60 GBP Shop Price at The Whisky Exchange
55 GBP Estimated Market Value
Macallan 12 Year Old / Fine Oak / Triple Cask Matured Speyside Whisky
70cl / 40% / Distillery Bottling - An evolution of Macallan's 12 year old whisky, matured in a combination of sherry and bourbon casks.
Fair Prized
60 GBP Shop Price at The Whisky Exchange
55 GBP Estimated Market Value