MONTHLY UPDATE

The Whiskystats Price Update for August 2021

13. September 2021 | 2.2K Views | 3 Comments

August brought solid value gains for many of the most collectable whisky brands. Macallan leads the way while we focus on those whiskies that were just not expensive enough. Here is the Whiskystats Price Update for August 2021! 

In our July Price Update, we highlighted Springbank and Bruichladdich since we observed some severe and constant value gains over the past 20 months. Well, this month it is exactly these two distilleries that account for the biggest setbacks in our monthly updated distillery ranking. The historically most traded whiskies from Springbank lost 4% in value, while those from Bruichladdich suffered an almost 8% loss.
 
On the green side of the August 2021 secondary whisky market, we find Dalmore, Macallan, and Auchentoshan. While our Dalmore and Macallan indices gained 3,7% and 4,9% respectively, prices for some collectable Auchentoshan soared up by 5,2%. This brought Auchentoshan straight into the Top 20 of our ranking, thereby overtaking Caol Ila, Tullibardine, and Ben Nevis. The overall market, represented by our Whiskystats Whisky Index (WWI), gained 0,5% too.

Unsold Lots

While we added another 15,6 thousand price observations to our whisky database this month, we also recorded 353 auction lots that haven’t been sold. Reasons for this could be that either the reserve price was not met or there were simply no bids at all. Although we certainly track this information, we haven’t made much use of it by now. However, this is viable information when you try to assess the value of your whisky, and hence we have plans to make it accessible on a per-bottle basis in a future Whiskystats update. For the moment, we can have a birds-eye view on the topic.
Unsold Whisky Auction Lots In the above visualization we can see the relative share of unsold whisky auction lots on a monthly basis for the past six years. Interestingly this share slowly increased from 2% and below in 2015 to 4% and above in early 2019. Over the past two years though, we observe a decreasing relative number of auction lots that did not attract high enough bids. It looks like this figure is fluctuating around 2% over the last couple of auction rounds. Note that the one downward spike was during the turbulences of the 2020 Covid spring, where some auctions were postponed or canceled.

Remarkable Not-Trades

Normally at this point, we highlight some whiskies which achieved remarkable prices. This could be strong value gains or losses or whiskies that haven’t been seen on auctions for a very long time. This month we thought it would be quite fitting to look at some lots that failed to sell. A prominent example is the below displayed Macallan 72yo Lalique Decanter. Two bottles were on sale and both of them reached 76.000 Euros. But one of these lots had a higher reserve price and hence the bottle was not sold. Looking at the historic auction results, it seems like this is about the level at which the secondary market sees this prestigious Macallan release, at least for the last year or so.
Macallan Lalique 72yo Decanter Another example is the 750ml version of the Bowmore 14yo (1974) The Costumes from Moon-Import. In December 2020 this whisky jumped to 4.700 Euros as, before that, the maximum price was 2.200 Euros. Maybe this was also about where the reserve was set this month. Although the respective lot attracted 71 bids, the final bid of around 4.200 Euros failed to meet the reserve and hence this lot did not sell either.
 
Quite naturally, most of the time it is the very high-valued lots where we see a reserve and hence comparably many bottles that fail to sell. But there are exceptions, as the Macallan Edition No.5 demonstrates, which failed to attract high enough bids in multiple instances this month.
 
What about the bottles in your collection? Did you know that you can track the market value of your collection with Whiskystats?

 

Comments

Board Forums The Whiskystats Price Update for August 2021

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  • #46826
    alan scottalan scott
    Participant

    Johannes,
    Interesting work on the unsold bottles. Do you have a split between unsold at any price and unsold at reserve price. I assume 95% of them will be unsold at reserve price.
    Your plan to look at unsold bottles on a per bottles basis looks interesting.
    I think you’d need to compare the reserve price to a fair value price to decide if the reserve was too high or the bottle was falling out of fashion.
    Keep up the good work.
    Alan

    #46875
    WhiskystatsWhiskystats
    Keymaster

    Hi Alan,
    from the 129 unsold lots at WhiskyAuctioneer, all had a reserve price.
    SWA only started to publish whether or not an unsold lot had a reserve, so will need to check on that.
    We currently do not know the exact reserve price, since this is not published information.

    Best wishes,
    Johannes

    #46905
    alan scottalan scott
    Participant

    Johannes,
    Thank you for that information. With a minimum bid level of £15 or £20 I would expect all bottles without a reserve to sell as this is about the price of a bottle of whisky retail.
    I did some work a year or so ago on Scotch Whisky Auctions looking at similar bottles on sale in the same month with and without reserves.I found that bottles with a reserve on average achieved a lower selling price than those without a reserve.
    Cheers
    Alan

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