The Whiskystats Price Update for November 2019
Hanyu drops down after six months of extraordinary growth. The Whiskystats Whisky Index loses again, but only slightly. Port Ellen struggles too, and we revisit the Game of Thrones releases. Here is our price update for November 2019!
Another fifteen thousand price observations found their way into our database in November 2019. Again the Macallan Edition No.5 is the most traded whisky of the month, followed by the Yamazaki 18yo and the Ardbeg Supernova (Committee Release 2019). Naturally Macallan dominates the list of the most traded whisky brands with more than twelve hundred trades. At the same time though, the Macallan index loses 0,5%. Since the end of the Macallan price rally in autumn 2018, this index lost roughly 19% to now stand at 285 index points. Macallan currently takes the fifth place in our distillery ranking, more than 100 points short of the top three distilleries of Hanyu, Rosebank and Karuizawa.
The above displayed Whiskystats Whisky Index is in the reds for the fourth consecutive month in a row. The -0,7% this month sent it below the 200 points threshold, which it broke through for the first time in July 2018. Quite interestingly, the index movements of 2019 resemble those from 2018, where we also saw strong gains until the midth, followed by significant losses towards the end of the year. It will be interesting to see if the upcoming round of auctions confirm this pattern, or if the WWI continues its way down south.
Again we use our region indices to confirm that all but one scotch whisky region index lost ground this month. The most traded Speyside releases gained 1,2% in value and our Japan index even went up by 2,5%. However, at the same time all other regions are in the reds. The 100 historically most traded Islay whiskies lost almost 5% in value in November 2019. Our Islay index now stands exactly at the same point as it did one year ago. From November 2018 to May 2019 it gained 25%, and lost all of these points again ever since.
One considerable driver of the Islay index movements is Port Ellen. While our Port Ellen index stayed fairly constant from March 2018 to February 2019, it then gained 6,7% within two months only to lose 16% within the following seven months. In the latest round of auctions the most traded Port Ellens lost 7% in value. To put this in perspective we now make the comparison between the major silent scotch distilleries on the secondary whisky market.
Obviously Brora and St. Magdalene are struggling too. Brora dropped below 250 index points again, while St. Magdalene is leveling in at around 150 points. Only Rosebank continues to perform strongly as our index gained 2% this month. Combined with the big loss of Hanyu, Rosebank is now only 2 index points shy of taking over the lead in our distillery ranking.
Game of Thrones
At last, we want to revisit the Game of Thrones releases Diageo issued at the beginning of this year. Up on release these bottles gained quite some attention as stocks seemed to be sold quickly and the hype was big for the final Game of Thrones season. This led to some ridiculous prices being paid on auctions. So what is the situation on the secondary market now after the buzz?
Well, things have calmed down. All releases are now available for around 50 Euros with the Lagavulin House Lannister release being the most expensive one at 61 Euros. At the moment, the cheapest one is the Glendullan House Tully edition with 38 Euros. All of this editions are traded on a regular basis with the Clynelish House Tyrell edition leading the pack with 621 different price observations. Quite astonishingly it took five months until the prices for the House Tyrell leveled in at 50 Euros. Up on release the price tag went as high as 300 Euros!
So it seems like the market is in an interesting phase. Will the downward movements continue, or will 2020 turn things around again? In case you did not know, you can track the market and the worth of your personal whisky collection by becoming a Whiskystats member!