The Whiskystats Price Update for September 2019
All of our major indices lost ground in the September round of auction although Hanyu, Yamazaki and Macallan realized gains. We also identified some inefficiencies of the secondary whisky market. Here is the price update for September 2019!
A whopping fifteen thousand new price observations found their way into our database this month. No less than eight thousand different releases experienced a price change. Cadenhead is once again the most traded independent bottler of them all. This is the fourth consecutive time that the oldest Scottish independent bottler was able to claim this position. At the same time though, the most traded Cadenhead whiskies lost 3,7% in value last month.
Similar is true for the overall market. Our Whiskystats Whisky Index, which summarizes the changes in the value of the 500 most traded whiskies each month, lost 1,2% too. Since its peak in July, the WWI lost more than 5% to now stand at 206 index points. To drill-down and find out where this decrease is coming from, we now take a look at the whisky regions we differ.
So we take our region indices and compare them in the below visualization. Quite obviously in this month, it was not a single region which was responsible for the value loss but all regions participated in this. Even the below not included Japanese whiskies lost value for the first time in 2019. A decrease of 1,5% brought our Japan index to 652 points. The historically most traded Islay whiskies fell by 1,8%, Speyside by 3,9%, the Highlands by 4,7% and Campbeltown even by 6,4%!
Next step is to have a look at our distillery indices. Out of the top 10 distilleries Hanyu (+1,1%), Yamazaki (+4,7%), Macallan (+0.7%) and Dalmore (+1%) all gained points. We observed the biggest losses for Brora (-5,5%), Rosebank (-2,3%) and Bowmore (-2,7%). Further down the list we see that also Springbank, Laphroaig and Glendronach lost significantly. So as it turns out, it really seems like the secondary whisky market paused its value growth as a whole, at least in September 2019. One possible explanation for this could be the high number of bottles on offer this month. This year it was only in March when we saw more bottles being auctioned.
At last we want to point out some pretty interesting price observations we made this month. For us it seems like the market can´t get its head around what these bottles should be worth. So prices bounce back and forth depending on which auction platform the whisky was traded on. One example for this is the Aberfeldy 17yo Flora & Fauna release from 1997. In September 2019 we observed one of these bottles being traded at WhiskyAuctioneer.com for roughly 444 Euros. At the same time, at ScotchWhiskyAuction.com, only 185 Euros have been paid. If we further look at the price history of this release (displayed below), we notice huge differences there too. In July 2017 this Aberfeldy even reached 733 Euros at WhiskyAuction.com!
And there are certainly other examples for such market inefficiencies. Take the Johnnie Walker Private Collection from 2014. This month this blend was sold for almost 1.000 Euros at ScotchWhiskyAuction.com but only achieved 340 Euros at WhiskyAuction.com. Or the Bruichladdich Black Art 5.1 for which the prices this month vary between 83 at 211 Euros. And then there is the Glenfarclas Limited Rare Bottling No.18. This Speyside single malt is actually constantly trading for around 180 Euros. But in August and September 2019 we suddenly find two price observations at 625 and 420 Euros. It seems like we still have a long way to go to bring more transparency to the secondary whisky market!
To avoid such missprizing, track the value of the whiskies of your interest with your personal collections on Whiskystats!